Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab: prediction and stats
Pro LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Riyadh
The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Al Shabab. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Al-Nassr is a heavy favourite: 2,133 Elo points against 1,792 — a 341-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Nassr have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Al Shabab have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 4-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Al Diriyah(away) | 4-1 | King's Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al-Fateh(home) | 3-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Almeria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Al Khaleej Saihat(away) | 0-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Wehda Club(away) | 2-3 | King's Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Al-Qadisiyah FC(home) | 1-3 | Pro League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | MC Alger(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al Ahli Doha(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Al-Nassr win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Al Shabab win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Al-Nassr 3-2 Al Shabab | Pro League |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Al-Nassr 2-2 Al Shabab | Pro League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Al Shabab 2-3 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Dec 11, 2023 | Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Nassr | King's Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Nassr score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Al Shabab score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Al Shabab | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Nassr sit 2nd in Pro League (6 points from 2 matches) and Al Shabab sit 13th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Al Shabab.
- Where and when is Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab played?
- Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab is played on November 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, in the Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.