Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: prediction and stats
Pro LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 15, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Riyadh
The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Al-Nassr (2,133) and Al-Ahli Jeddah (2,104).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Nassr have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Al-Ahli Jeddah have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(away) | 3-2 | Pro League |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 4-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Al Diriyah(away) | 4-1 | King's Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al-Fateh(home) | 3-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Almeria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Abha(home) | 4-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Al Anwar(away) | 2-1 | King's Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Al Diriyah(away) | 1-0 | Pro League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Nassr win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Al-Nassr 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah | Super Cup |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-3 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-1 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Nassr score 2.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Ahli Jeddah score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 2.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Nassr sit 1st in Pro League (9 points from 3 matches) and Al-Ahli Jeddah sit 4th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Where and when is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah played?
- Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is played on April 15, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, in the Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.