Alashkert vs Ararat-Armenia: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Nairi, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes Alashkert the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Ararat-Armenia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alashkert vs Ararat-Armenia?
Ararat-Armenia starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,868 vs 1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alashkert have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Ararat-Armenia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Gandzasar(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC Noah(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BKMA(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ararat(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Universitatea Craiova(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Van(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC Urartu(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alashkert win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ararat-Armenia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia 1-1 Alashkert | Premier League |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Alashkert 1-0 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Alashkert | Premier League |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 0-1 Alashkert | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 3-0 Alashkert | Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Alashkert 2-2 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alashkert score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat-Armenia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alashkert | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alashkert sit 3rd in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Ararat-Armenia sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Alashkert | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alashkert vs Ararat-Armenia?
- The Footlab model makes Alashkert the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Ararat-Armenia.
- Where and when is Alashkert vs Ararat-Armenia played?
- Alashkert vs Ararat-Armenia is played on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Nairi, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.