Alay vs Ilbirs: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion, Osh
The Footlab AI model makes Alay the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Ilbirs. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,539 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alay vs Ilbirs?
Alay starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,527 vs 1,339).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alay vs Ilbirs
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alay
Not enough data to predict the Alay lineup.
Ilbirs
Not enough data to predict the Ilbirs lineup.
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 04:13 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alay have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ilbirs have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Neftchi(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Kara-Balta(away) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Alga(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Asia Talas(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Abdish-Ata(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Toktogul(home) | 3-4 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Kara-Balta(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Alga(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Bars(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Alay wins, 1 draw, 0 Ilbirs wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Ilbirs 1-1 Alay | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Ilbirs 1-4 Alay | Premier League |
| May 1, 2025 | Alay 1-0 Ilbirs | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Alay 1-0 Ilbirs | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Alay 3-1 Ilbirs | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Ilbirs 0-2 Alay | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Alay score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ilbirs score 1.2 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alay | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Ilbirs | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alay sit 6th in Premier League (44 points from 29 matches) and Ilbirs sit 12th (29 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alay | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 44 |
| 12 | Ilbirs | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 48 | 29 |
A question about Alay vs Ilbirs?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alay vs Ilbirs?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alay the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Ilbirs.
- Where and when is Alay vs Ilbirs played?
- Alay vs Ilbirs is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.