Alfaro vs San Marcial: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Molineta, Alfaro
The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for San Marcial. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alfaro wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,874 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfaro vs San Marcial?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Alfaro (1,787) and San Marcial (1,744).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alfaro vs San Marcial
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
San Marcial
Not enough data to predict the San Marcial lineup.
Computed on October 30, 2026 at 12:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfaro have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; San Marcial have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Varea(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vianés(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cenicero(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Berceo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfaro score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; San Marcial score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfaro | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| San Marcial | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfaro sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (16 points from 8 matches) and San Marcial sit 9th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alfaro | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
A question about Alfaro vs San Marcial?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfaro vs San Marcial?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for San Marcial.
- Where and when is Alfaro vs San Marcial played?
- Alfaro vs San Marcial is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Molineta, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.