Aljustrelense vs Real: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 12Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel, Aljustrel
The Footlab model makes Aljustrelense the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aljustrelense vs Real?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Aljustrelense (1,620) and Real (1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aljustrelense have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Real have 0, 3 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Moura(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Louletano(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Aljustrelense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2020 | Aljustrelense 1-6 Real | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Oct 13, 2019 | Real 4-0 Aljustrelense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Aljustrelense score 0.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljustrelense | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aljustrelense vs Real?
- The Footlab model makes Aljustrelense the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Real.
- Where and when is Aljustrelense vs Real played?
- Aljustrelense vs Real is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.