Lagoa vs Aljustrelense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Capitão Josino da Costa, Lagoa
The Footlab AI model makes Lagoa the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lagoa vs Aljustrelense?
Lagoa starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,879 vs 1,701).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lagoa vs Aljustrelense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lagoa
Not enough data to predict the Lagoa lineup.
Aljustrelense
4-3-3- PPedro Alexandre Fialho Guerreiro
- PPaulo Costa
- EE. Udokporo
- BBabacar Thiam Fall
- SSene Dabo
- IInsa Sagna
- BBlessed Andrade Mendes Teixeira
- VVumi Côco Mpasi
- RRui Miguel Pereira Alexandre
- JJonathan Restrepo Firmino
- IIgor Miguel Henriques Palma
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lagoa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aljustrelense have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Amora(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | FC Serpa(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara B(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventude Évora(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Portel(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ferreiras(away) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Lagoa wins, 1 draw, 0 Aljustrelense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aljustrelense 1-1 Lagoa | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
Last archived meeting: Aljustrelense vs Lagoa on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lagoa score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aljustrelense score 0.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagoa | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Aljustrelense | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lagoa | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 35 | 30 |
A question about Lagoa vs Aljustrelense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lagoa vs Aljustrelense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lagoa the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is Lagoa vs Aljustrelense played?
- Lagoa vs Aljustrelense is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Capitão Josino da Costa, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.