Alondras vs Sarriana: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo do Morrazo, Cangas
The Footlab model makes Sarriana the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Alondras. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alondras vs Sarriana?
Sarriana starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,845 vs 1,743).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alondras have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sarriana have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Viveiro(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | CD Lugo B(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Celta de Vigo III(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Silva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Racing Santander II(home) | 3-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Bergantiños(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sámano(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Alondras win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sarriana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Sarriana 1-2 Alondras | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Alondras 2-1 Sarriana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Alondras 1-2 Sarriana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Sarriana 1-1 Alondras | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alondras score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sarriana score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alondras | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Sarriana | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alondras | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 | 48 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alondras vs Sarriana?
- The Footlab model makes Sarriana the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Alondras.
- Where and when is Alondras vs Sarriana played?
- Alondras vs Sarriana is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo do Morrazo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.