Estradense vs Coruña: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada, A Estrada
The Footlab model makes Estradense the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Coruña. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estradense vs Coruña?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Estradense (1,809) and Coruña (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estradense have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Coruña have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Barco(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Compostela(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cambados(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Boiro(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barco(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Compostela(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Estradense(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Estradense win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Coruña win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Coruña 0-1 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Estradense 0-1 Coruña | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Estradense score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Coruña score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estradense | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Coruña | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estradense sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (53 points from 34 matches) and Coruña sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Estradense | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 46 | 33 | 53 |
| 9 | Coruña | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 48 | 42 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estradense vs Coruña?
- The Footlab model makes Estradense the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Coruña.
- Where and when is Estradense vs Coruña played?
- Estradense vs Coruña is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.