America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for America Mineiro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife?
Nautico Recife starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,856 vs 1,733).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, America Mineiro have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Nautico Recife have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 America Mineiro win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Nautico Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Nautico Recife 4-0 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Jan 12, 2021 | Nautico Recife 0-0 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Oct 9, 2020 | America Mineiro 2-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Aug 12, 2017 | America Mineiro 1-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| May 13, 2017 | Nautico Recife 0-0 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Sep 12, 2015 | America Mineiro 2-1 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
America Mineiro score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
America Mineiro sit 19th in Serie B (11 points from 23 matches) and Nautico Recife sit 15th (31 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 23 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 39 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for America Mineiro.
- Where and when is America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife played?
- America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife is played on September 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.