Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santa Cruz, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Botafogo SP. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino?
Novorizontino starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,943 vs 1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo SP have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Novorizontino have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 4-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Botafogo SP win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Novorizontino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Novorizontino 1-0 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Novorizontino 2-0 Botafogo SP | Paulista - A1 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Novorizontino 1-1 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Botafogo SP 0-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Botafogo SP 1-2 Novorizontino | Paulista - A1 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Novorizontino 2-0 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo SP score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Novorizontino score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Novorizontino | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo SP sit 14th in Serie B (31 points from 23 matches) and Novorizontino sit 5th (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Novorizontino | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 37 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino?
- The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Botafogo SP.
- Where and when is Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino played?
- Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino is played on September 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santa Cruz, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.