Araxá vs Paracatu: prediction and stats
Mineiro - 3Regular Season - 2Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Fausto Alvim, Araxá, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Araxá the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Paracatu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Araxá vs Paracatu?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Araxá (1,573) and Paracatu (1,629).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Araxá have 1 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Paracatu have 3, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2013 | Nova Iguaçu(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Aug 17, 2013 | Tupi(home) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Aug 10, 2013 | Aracruz(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jul 27, 2013 | Resende(home) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| Jul 14, 2013 | Resende(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Novo Esporte Clube(home) | 0-0 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Tupi(away) | 2-1 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Coimbra(away) | 1-2 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | BOA(home) | 1-1 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Essube(away) | 2-0 | Mineiro - 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Araxá score 0.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 8; Paracatu score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araxá | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 3/8 | 3/8 |
| Paracatu | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 | 7/10 | 4/10 |
Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Araxá vs Paracatu?
- The Footlab model makes Araxá the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Paracatu.
- Where and when is Araxá vs Paracatu played?
- Araxá vs Paracatu is played on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Fausto Alvim, in the Mineiro - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.