Arconatese vs Pro Patria: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Centro Sportivo Comunale Roberto Battaglia, Busto Garolfo
The Footlab model makes Arconatese the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arconatese vs Pro Patria?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Arconatese (1,603) and Pro Patria (1,589).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arconatese have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Pro Patria have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Breno(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chievo(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Fanfulla(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Renate(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arzignano Valchiampo(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 4-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Arconatese score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pro Patria score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arconatese | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Pro Patria | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arconatese vs Pro Patria?
- The Footlab model makes Arconatese the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Arconatese vs Pro Patria played?
- Arconatese vs Pro Patria is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Centro Sportivo Comunale Roberto Battaglia, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.