Pro Sesto vs Pro Patria: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni
The Footlab model makes Pro Sesto the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Sesto vs Pro Patria?
Pro Sesto starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,729 vs 1,589).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Sesto have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Pro Patria have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tuttocuoio(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Piacenza(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Renate(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arzignano Valchiampo(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 4-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Pro Sesto win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Pro Patria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2024 | Pro Sesto 1-0 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Pro Patria 0-0 Pro Sesto | Serie C - Girone A |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Pro Patria 1-3 Pro Sesto | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Pro Sesto 2-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Feb 16, 2022 | Pro Patria 0-3 Pro Sesto | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Pro Sesto 1-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Pro Sesto vs Pro Patria on Apr 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Sesto score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Pro Patria score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Sesto | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Pro Patria | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pro Sesto | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 45 | 29 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Sesto vs Pro Patria?
- The Footlab model makes Pro Sesto the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Pro Sesto vs Pro Patria played?
- Pro Sesto vs Pro Patria is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ernesto Breda, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.