Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 26Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Thessaloníki
The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Kalamata. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Aris Thessalonikis (1,950) and Kalamata (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris Thessalonikis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Kalamata have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 2-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Volos NFC(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-0 | Super League 2 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Marko(away) | 0-0 | Super League 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Aris Thessalonikis win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Kalamata win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kalamata score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Kalamata | 1.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris Thessalonikis sit 5th in Super League 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Kalamata sit 9th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
- The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Kalamata.
- Where and when is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata played?
- Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.