Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Thessaloníki
The Footlab model makes Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Aris Thessalonikis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (2,098 vs 1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris Thessalonikis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Olympiakos Piraeus have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atromitos(home) | 1-0 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Antwerp(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aris Thessalonikis win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Olympiakos Piraeus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus on Dec 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Olympiakos Piraeus score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris Thessalonikis sit 5th in Super League 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Olympiakos Piraeus sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
- The Footlab model makes Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Aris Thessalonikis.
- Where and when is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus played?
- Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.