Ascoli vs Cesena: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Cesena. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ascoli vs Cesena?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ascoli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Cesena have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hellas Verona(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-4 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forli(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ascoli win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Cesena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2018 | Ascoli 2-1 Cesena | Serie B |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Cesena 0-2 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Jan 28, 2017 | Cesena 2-2 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Sep 27, 2016 | Ascoli 0-0 Cesena | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cesena score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Cesena | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ascoli sit 2nd in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Cesena sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ascoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ascoli vs Cesena?
- The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Cesena.
- Where and when is Ascoli vs Cesena played?
- Ascoli vs Cesena is played on April 10, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.