Astillero FC (Ecu) vs Universidad Catolica: prediction and stats
Copa EcuadorQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Universidad Catolica the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Astillero FC (Ecu). The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Astillero FC (Ecu) vs Universidad Catolica?
Universidad Catolica starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,607).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Astillero FC (Ecu) have 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Universidad Catolica have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Daquilema FC(home) | 2-0 | Copa Ecuador |
| May 14, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(home) | 2-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 22 de Julio(home) | 2-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manta FC(home) | 5-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Macara(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Libertad(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 5-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
How many goals should we expect?
Astillero FC (Ecu) score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 3; Universidad Catolica score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astillero FC (Ecu) | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1 | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| Universidad Catolica | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Astillero FC (Ecu) vs Universidad Catolica?
- The Footlab model makes Universidad Catolica the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Astillero FC (Ecu).
- Where and when is Astillero FC (Ecu) vs Universidad Catolica played?
- Astillero FC (Ecu) vs Universidad Catolica is played on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Copa Ecuador.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.