LDU de Quito vs Aucas: prediction and stats
Copa EcuadorQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
The Footlab model makes Aucas the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for LDU de Quito. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Aucas?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate LDU de Quito (1,863) and Aucas (1,765).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, LDU de Quito have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Aucas have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Emelec(home) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aucas(away) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Delfin SC(away) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 0-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 12, 2026 | La Unión(away) | 1-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leones del Norte(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Emelec(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 LDU de Quito win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aucas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aucas 0-1 LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| Apr 23, 2026 | LDU de Quito 0-0 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Aucas 1-0 LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| Apr 18, 2025 | LDU de Quito 3-1 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Aucas 0-1 LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| Mar 16, 2024 | LDU de Quito 1-2 Aucas | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Aucas vs LDU de Quito on Aug 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
LDU de Quito score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aucas score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Aucas | 1.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for LDU de Quito vs Aucas?
- The Footlab model makes Aucas the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for LDU de Quito.
- Where and when is LDU de Quito vs Aucas played?
- LDU de Quito vs Aucas is played on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, in the Copa Ecuador.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.