Astur vs Mosconia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Hermanos Llana, Oviedo
The Footlab model makes Astur the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Mosconia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Astur vs Mosconia?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Astur (1,746) and Mosconia (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 2 matches in all competitions, Astur have 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Mosconia have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | Valladolid(home) | 1-4 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Promesas EDF(home) | 2-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Navarro(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Astur score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 2; Mosconia score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astur | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 1/2 | 1/2 |
| Mosconia | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 2 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mosconia | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 27 | 56 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Astur vs Mosconia?
- The Footlab model makes Astur the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Mosconia.
- Where and when is Astur vs Mosconia played?
- Astur vs Mosconia is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Hermanos Llana, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.