Match

Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, Ascoli Piceno

Atletico AscoliMaceratese

The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Maceratese. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese?

Atletico Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,777 vs 1,664).

Atletico Ascoli win60 %
Draw24 %
Maceratese win16 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Ascoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Maceratese have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico Ascoli
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 8, 2026Pineto(away)1-1Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026Teramo(away)1-2Serie D - Girone F
May 3, 2026Teramo(home)1-1Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026Sammaurese(away)0-2Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026Fossombrone(home)1-1Serie D - Girone F
Maceratese
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Chieti(away)0-1Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026Real Giulianova(home)1-1Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026Unipomezia(away)0-3Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026Recanatese(home)2-1Serie D - Girone F
Apr 2, 2026Castelfidardo Calcio(away)2-2Serie D - Girone F

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Atletico Ascoli win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Maceratese win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 22, 2026Atletico Ascoli 2-0 MacerateseSerie D - Girone F
Nov 9, 2025Maceratese 3-1 Atletico AscoliSerie D - Girone F

Last archived meeting: Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese on Mar 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maceratese score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico Ascoli1.51.1310/156/15
Maceratese1.01.335/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico Ascoli sit 4th in Serie D - Girone F (55 points from 34 matches) and Maceratese sit 12th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Atletico Ascoli3414137553455
12Maceratese3411518434938

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese?
The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Maceratese.
Where and when is Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese played?
Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese is played on September 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Atletico Ascoli and Maceratese

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