Atletico Lodigiani vs Sarnese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Sarnese the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Atletico Lodigiani. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Lodigiani vs Sarnese?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Atletico Lodigiani (1,679) and Sarnese (1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Lodigiani have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sarnese have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Cassino(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Monterotondo(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Budoni(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Nocerina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Montespaccato(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Cavese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Pompei(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Atletico Lodigiani win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sarnese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Atletico Lodigiani 1-1 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Sarnese 4-0 Atletico Lodigiani | Serie D - Girone G |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Lodigiani vs Sarnese on Apr 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Lodigiani score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sarnese score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Lodigiani | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Sarnese | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atletico Lodigiani | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43 | 40 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Lodigiani vs Sarnese?
- The Footlab model makes Sarnese the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Atletico Lodigiani.
- Where and when is Atletico Lodigiani vs Sarnese played?
- Atletico Lodigiani vs Sarnese is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.