Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors: prediction and stats
CONMEBOL SudamericanaFinalKick-off on November 21, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab AI model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,019 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors?
Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 264-point Elo edge (2,060 vs 1,796).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1- 17Igor Gomes
- 21A. Franco
- 15K. Castaño
- 11Bernard
- 28T. Cuello
- 30Victor Hugo
- 40Vitão
- 6Renan Lodi
- 2Natanael
- 13Lyanco
- 1Gabriel Delfim
Boca Juniors
4-3-3- 16M. Merentiel
- 22S. Villa
- 19L. Flores
- 18M. Delgado
- 25S. Ascacíbar
- 5L. Paredes
- 2L. Di Lollo
- 17L. Lozano
- 42F. Herrera
- 3L. Blanco
- 1Á. Montero
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 09:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Boca Juniors have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 1-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 1, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Atletico-MG wins, 2 draws, 0 Boca Juniors wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2021 | Atletico-MG 0-0 Boca Juniors | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Jul 13, 2021 | Boca Juniors 0-0 Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors on Jul 20, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico-MG score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Boca Juniors score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Boca Juniors | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico-MG | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors?
- The Footlab AI model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors played?
- Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors is played on November 21, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.