Atletico-MG vs Corinthians: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Corinthians. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Corinthians?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Atletico-MG (1,983) and Corinthians (1,991).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Corinthians have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atletico-MG win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Corinthians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Corinthians 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Corinthians 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| May 25, 2025 | Atletico-MG 0-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Corinthians 0-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2023 | Corinthians 1-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Corinthians vs Atletico-MG on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico-MG score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Corinthians score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Corinthians | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico-MG sit 9th in Serie A (33 points from 23 matches) and Corinthians sit 10th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Corinthians?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Corinthians.
- Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Corinthians played?
- Atletico-MG vs Corinthians is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.