Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:45 PM (UTC)Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, Aubagne
The Footlab model makes Aubagne the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Bourg-en-bresse 01. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Aubagne (1,705) and Bourg-en-bresse 01 (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aubagne have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Bourg-en-bresse 01 have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bastia(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
| May 15, 2026 | Caen(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Valenciennes(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Villefranche(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Dijon(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Aubagne win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Bourg-en-bresse 01 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Aubagne 1-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-0 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Aubagne 1-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 2-1 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
Last archived meeting: Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aubagne score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bourg-en-bresse 01 score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubagne | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aubagne sit 18th in Ligue 3 (0 points from 3 matches) and Bourg-en-bresse 01 sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
- The Footlab model makes Aubagne the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Bourg-en-bresse 01.
- Where and when is Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 played?
- Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:45 PM (UTC) at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.