Caen vs Bastia: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on August 27, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caen vs Bastia?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Caen (1,779) and Bastia (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Bastia have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 3-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dieppe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Caen win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Bastia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2025 | Bastia 2-1 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Caen 2-0 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Bastia 1-2 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Caen 1-0 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 3, 2023 | Caen 3-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 26, 2022 | Bastia 1-0 Caen | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caen sit 4th in Ligue 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Bastia sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Bastia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caen vs Bastia?
- The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Caen vs Bastia played?
- Caen vs Bastia is played on August 27, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Michel d'Ornano, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.