Aurrerá Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Aurrerá Vitoria (1,704) and Deportivo Alavés III (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Deportivo Alavés III have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Portugalete(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Zarautz(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Alavés III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III 1-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Aurrerá Vitoria 0-1 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Alavés III vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Alavés III score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Deportivo Alavés III | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (54 points from 34 matches) and Deportivo Alavés III sit 9th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés III | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57 | 40 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.