Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aurrerá Vitoria wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Aurrerá Vitoria (1,675) and Derio (1,739).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aurrerá Vitoria
4-3-3- ÍÍñigo Hernández
- DDevis
- AAsier Ruiz
- MMartín Asurmendi
- MMikel Gonzalez
- AAritz Castro
- JJoel Martinez
- YYeray Terrazas
- HHodei Gastaminza
- JJon Rementería
- JJulen Barria
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Touring(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Aurrerá Vitoria wins, 2 draws, 0 Derio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio 1-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Derio vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (13 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
A question about Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Derio.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Derio is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.