Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE?
Aurrerá Vitoria starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,751 vs 1,627).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aurrerá Vitoria
4-3-3- ÍÍñigo Hernández
- DDevis
- AAsier Ruiz
- MMartín Asurmendi
- MMikel Gonzalez
- AAritz Castro
- JJoel Martinez
- YYeray Terrazas
- HHodei Gastaminza
- JJon Rementería
- JJulen Barria
Pasaia KE
Not enough data to predict the Pasaia KE lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 06:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Pasaia KE have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Aurrerá Vitoria wins, 1 draw, 1 Pasaia KE win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria 3-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Pasaia KE 0-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Pasaia KE 1-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-3 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (16 points from 8 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 13th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 10 |
A question about Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Pasaia KE is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.