Leioa vs Beasain: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Beasain. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Beasain?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Leioa (1,837) and Beasain (1,879).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Beasain have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Touring(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Náxara(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ebro(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leioa win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Beasain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Leioa 1-3 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Beasain 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Leioa 1-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Beasain 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 5, 2024 | Beasain 3-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Leioa 2-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Beasain score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Beasain | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Beasain?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Beasain.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Beasain played?
- Leioa vs Beasain is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.