Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Muro de Zaro, Avilés
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Avilés Stadium. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 288-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,650).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Avilés Stadium
Not enough data to predict the Avilés Stadium lineup.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avilés Stadium have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Lealtad(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Praviano(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | L'Entregu(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Avilés Stadium wins, 0 draws, 6 Covadonga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Covadonga 4-0 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Covadonga 3-0 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Avilés Stadium 0-4 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Covadonga 2-1 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Avilés Stadium 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Covadonga 2-0 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Avilés Stadium on Sep 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avilés Stadium score 0.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avilés Stadium | 0.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avilés Stadium sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (3 points from 5 matches) and Covadonga sit 1st (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 16 | Avilés Stadium | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3 |
A question about Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Avilés Stadium.
- Where and when is Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga played?
- Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Muro de Zaro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.