Ayutthaya FC vs BG Pathum United: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 18Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Ayutthaya Stadium, Ayutthaya
The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Ayutthaya FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayutthaya FC vs BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,822 vs 1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayutthaya FC have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; BG Pathum United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Buriram United(away) | 0-5 | FA Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 1-4 | Thai League 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Bangkok United(away) | 1-4 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 1-3 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Buriram United(away) | 0-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Muangthong United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Ayutthaya FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 BG Pathum United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Ayutthaya FC 0-2 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | BG Pathum United 1-0 Ayutthaya FC | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 25, 2019 | Ayutthaya FC 3-3 BG Pathum United | Thai League 2 |
| May 29, 2019 | BG Pathum United 1-0 Ayutthaya FC | Thai League 2 |
Last archived meeting: Ayutthaya FC vs BG Pathum United on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ayutthaya FC score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; BG Pathum United score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayutthaya FC | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| BG Pathum United | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayutthaya FC sit 10th in Thai League 1 (32 points from 30 matches) and BG Pathum United sit 4th (52 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BG Pathum United | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 52 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 50 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayutthaya FC vs BG Pathum United?
- The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Ayutthaya FC.
- Where and when is Ayutthaya FC vs BG Pathum United played?
- Ayutthaya FC vs BG Pathum United is played on February 21, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Ayutthaya Stadium, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.