Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Bank Respublika Arena, Masazyr (Masazir)
The Footlab model makes Azerbaijan the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Liechtenstein. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein?
Azerbaijan starts as the favourite with a 251-point Elo edge (1,339 vs 1,089).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azerbaijan have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Liechtenstein have 1, 0 and 14.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | St. Lucia(home) | 6-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 16, 2025 | France(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cyprus(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Andorra(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Aruba(away) | 1-4 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Tanzania(away) | 1-0 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Belgium(away) | 0-7 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Azerbaijan score 0.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Liechtenstein score 0.3 and concede 3.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Liechtenstein | 0.3 | 3.2 | 1 | 3/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein?
- The Footlab model makes Azerbaijan the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Liechtenstein.
- Where and when is Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein played?
- Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein is played on October 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Bank Respublika Arena, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.