Malta vs Gibraltar: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta'Qali
The Footlab model makes Malta the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Gibraltar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malta vs Gibraltar?
Malta starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,274 vs 1,155).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malta have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Gibraltar have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Poland(home) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Cayman Islands(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | British Virgin Islands(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Latvia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Latvia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Czechia(away) | 0-6 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Malta win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gibraltar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2023 | Malta 1-0 Gibraltar | Friendlies |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Malta 2-0 Gibraltar | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Malta score 0.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gibraltar score 0.8 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 0.7 | 2.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Gibraltar | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malta vs Gibraltar?
- The Footlab model makes Malta the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Gibraltar.
- Where and when is Malta vs Gibraltar played?
- Malta vs Gibraltar is played on October 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Ta'Qali National Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.