Bærum vs Union Carl Berner: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 1Regular Season - 20Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)AJ Arena, Sandvika
The Footlab model makes Bærum the favourite at 71%, against 15% for a draw and 14% for Union Carl Berner. The most likely score is 3-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bærum vs Union Carl Berner?
Bærum starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,583).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bærum have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Union Carl Berner have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mjondalen(home) | 4-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SF Grei(away) | 7-1 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | KFUM II(home) | 5-1 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Heming(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Vålerenga II(home) | 6-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ullern(away) | 1-4 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Konnerud(home) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gamle Oslo(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Asker(home) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Vålerenga II(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Bærum win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Union Carl Berner win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Union Carl Berner 2-0 Bærum | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
Last archived meeting: Union Carl Berner vs Bærum on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bærum score 3.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Union Carl Berner score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bærum | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Union Carl Berner | 1.5 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bærum sit 3rd in 3. Division - Girone 1 (31 points from 16 matches) and Union Carl Berner sit 8th (21 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bærum | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 56 | 29 | 31 |
| 8 | Union Carl Berner | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 26 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bærum vs Union Carl Berner?
- The Footlab model makes Bærum the favourite at 71%, against 15% for a draw and 14% for Union Carl Berner.
- Where and when is Bærum vs Union Carl Berner played?
- Bærum vs Union Carl Berner is played on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at AJ Arena, in the 3. Division - Girone 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 84% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.