Bali United vs Persebaya Surabaya: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 17Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC)Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta, Gianyar
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Bali United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bali United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Bali United (1,775) and Persebaya Surabaya (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bali United have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Persebaya Surabaya have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | Dewa United(away) | 1-0 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(home) | 4-1 | Liga 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Pusamania Borneo(home) | 2-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 5, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bali United win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Persebaya Surabaya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bali United 1-3 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya 5-2 Bali United | Liga 1 |
| May 23, 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-3 Bali United | Liga 1 |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Bali United 2-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 0-2 Bali United | Liga 1 |
| Oct 20, 2023 | Bali United 3-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Bali United vs Persebaya Surabaya on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bali United score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bali United | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bali United sit 8th in Liga 1 (51 points from 34 matches) and Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 8 | Bali United | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bali United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Bali United.
- Where and when is Bali United vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
- Bali United vs Persebaya Surabaya is played on December 26, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC) at Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.