Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ferney Park, Ballinamallard
The Footlab model makes Ballinamallard United the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Warrenpoint Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Ballinamallard United (1,211) and Warrenpoint Town (1,245).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ballinamallard United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Warrenpoint Town have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Institute(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Armagh City(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | H&W Welders(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Cliftonville FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ballinamallard United win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Warrenpoint Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ballinamallard United 0-1 Warrenpoint Town | Championship |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town 1-0 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Ballinamallard United 0-4 Warrenpoint Town | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Warrenpoint Town 4-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Warrenpoint Town 2-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Ballinamallard United 1-1 Warrenpoint Town | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ballinamallard United score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Warrenpoint Town score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballinamallard United | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Warrenpoint Town | 0.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ballinamallard United sit 9th in Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Warrenpoint Town sit 8th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Warrenpoint Town | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 44 | 50 | 36 |
| 9 | Warrenpoint Town | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 45 | 53 | 41 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 34 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town?
- The Footlab model makes Ballinamallard United the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Warrenpoint Town.
- Where and when is Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town played?
- Ballinamallard United vs Warrenpoint Town is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ferney Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.