Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Mourneview Park, Lurgan
The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for H&W Welders. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Glenavon FC (1,416) and H&W Welders (1,434).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Glenavon FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; H&W Welders have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Armagh City(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Armagh City(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Glenavon FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 H&W Welders win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2025 | H&W Welders 3-0 Glenavon FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Glenavon FC 1-4 H&W Welders | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Glenavon FC 0-1 H&W Welders | Irish Cup |
| Jul 27, 2022 | H&W Welders 1-2 Glenavon FC | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: H&W Welders vs Glenavon FC on Aug 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Glenavon FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; H&W Welders score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenavon FC | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| H&W Welders | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Glenavon FC sit 4th in Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and H&W Welders sit 2nd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | H&W Welders | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 87 | 48 | 66 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 77 | 41 | 59 |
| 4 | Glenavon FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders?
- The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for H&W Welders.
- Where and when is Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders played?
- Glenavon FC vs H&W Welders is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Mourneview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.