Ballymena United vs Portadown: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Showgrounds, Ballymena
The Footlab model makes Ballymena United the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Portadown. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ballymena United vs Portadown?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Ballymena United (1,483) and Portadown (1,450).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ballymena United have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Portadown have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Glentoran(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crusaders FC(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Linfield(away) | 3-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crusaders FC(away) | 2-3 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kilbarrack United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | H&W Welders(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ballymena United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Portadown win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ballymena United 1-2 Portadown | Premiership |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Ballymena United 1-1 Portadown | Premiership |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Portadown 1-0 Ballymena United | Premiership |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Portadown 0-2 Ballymena United | Premiership |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Portadown 2-1 Ballymena United | Premiership |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Ballymena United 2-0 Portadown | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Ballymena United vs Portadown on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ballymena United score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Portadown score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Portadown | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ballymena United sit 8th in Premiership (3 points from 3 matches) and Portadown sit 10th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ballymena United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Portadown | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ballymena United vs Portadown?
- The Footlab model makes Ballymena United the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Portadown.
- Where and when is Ballymena United vs Portadown played?
- Ballymena United vs Portadown is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Showgrounds, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.