Larne vs Ballymena United: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Inver Park, Larne
The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Ballymena United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Larne vs Ballymena United?
Larne starts as the favourite with a 264-point Elo edge (1,746 vs 1,482).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Larne have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ballymena United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coleraine FC(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Saburtalo(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Glentoran(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crusaders FC(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Linfield(away) | 3-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Larne win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ballymena United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Ballymena United 0-2 Larne | Premiership |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Ballymena United 1-2 Larne | Irish Cup |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Ballymena United 2-0 Larne | League Cup |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Ballymena United 0-2 Larne | Premiership |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Larne 2-0 Ballymena United | Premiership |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Ballymena United 1-2 Larne | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Ballymena United vs Larne on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Larne score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ballymena United score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Ballymena United | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Larne sit 9th in Premiership (1 points from 1 matches) and Ballymena United sit 8th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ballymena United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Larne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Larne vs Ballymena United?
- The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Ballymena United.
- Where and when is Larne vs Ballymena United played?
- Larne vs Ballymena United is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Inver Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.