Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Cultural Leonesa. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa?
Barakaldo starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,958 vs 1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Cultural Leonesa have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 4-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club II(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Barakaldo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Cultural Leonesa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2025 | Cultural Leonesa 2-1 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Barakaldo 3-0 Cultural Leonesa | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 27, 2019 | Barakaldo 0-0 Cultural Leonesa | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Cultural Leonesa vs Barakaldo on May 10, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cultural Leonesa score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Cultural Leonesa | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 58 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa?
- The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Cultural Leonesa.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa played?
- Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.