Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 8Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, Castelo Branco
The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1. If Os Marialvas wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 4,795 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
On Elo ratings, Benfica Castelo Branco has 1,842 points and Os Marialvas 1,908.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
Os Marialvas
4-3-3- 40Y. Sonhi
- 55Paulinho
- 9A. Undonque
- 8G. Pinto
- 45G. Batalha
- 6L. Maia
- 7Gonçalo Lixa
- 10João Silva
- 3S. Fernandes
- 20A. Santos
- 32Bruno Souza
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 05:04 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica Castelo Branco have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Os Marialvas have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Benfica Castelo Branco wins, 0 draws, 4 Os Marialvas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco 0-1 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Os Marialvas 2-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Os Marialvas 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-2 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Os Marialvas score 1.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.3 | 1.6 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.4 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica Castelo Branco sit 6th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (9 points from 6 matches) and Os Marialvas sit 4th (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas played?
- Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.