Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Papa Francisco, Fátima
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica Castelo Branco the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Fátima. The most likely score is 1-1. If Benfica Castelo Branco wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,695 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Fátima (1,817) and Benfica Castelo Branco (1,853).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fátima
Not enough data to predict the Fátima lineup.
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 04:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fátima have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Benfica Castelo Branco have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fátima wins, 2 draws, 1 Benfica Castelo Branco win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fátima 3-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fátima 4-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 0-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 26, 2020 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco on Aug 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fátima score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.3 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fátima sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (4 points from 4 matches) and Benfica Castelo Branco sit 8th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
A question about Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica Castelo Branco the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Fátima.
- Where and when is Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco played?
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Papa Francisco, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.