Berceo vs Cenicero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Isla, Logroño
The Footlab model makes Berceo the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Cenicero. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Berceo vs Cenicero?
Berceo starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,672 vs 1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Berceo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Cenicero have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Autol(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UD Logroñés II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2022 | Varea(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 14, 2022 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Rapid de Murillo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Calahorra II(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Berceo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Cenicero win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2022 | Berceo 2-1 Cenicero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 12, 2021 | Cenicero 1-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Berceo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cenicero score 0.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berceo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Cenicero | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Berceo | 34 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 42 | 50 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Berceo vs Cenicero?
- The Footlab model makes Berceo the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Cenicero.
- Where and when is Berceo vs Cenicero played?
- Berceo vs Cenicero is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Isla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.