BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 21Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Chonburi FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
BG Pathum United starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,822 vs 1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BG Pathum United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Chonburi FC have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Muangthong United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 2-1 | Thai League 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Kanchanaburi(away) | 2-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Muangthong United(home) | 0-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Prachuap(away) | 0-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 3-4 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 BG Pathum United win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Chonburi FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | BG Pathum United 2-3 Chonburi FC | Thai League 1 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Chonburi FC 1-2 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | BG Pathum United 1-1 Chonburi FC | Thai League 1 |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Chonburi FC 1-4 BG Pathum United | League Cup |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Chonburi FC 2-2 BG Pathum United | FA Cup |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Chonburi FC 1-3 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
Last archived meeting: BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BG Pathum United score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chonburi FC score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Pathum United | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Chonburi FC | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BG Pathum United sit 4th in Thai League 1 (52 points from 30 matches) and Chonburi FC sit 8th (39 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BG Pathum United | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 52 |
| 8 | Chonburi FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 41 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
- The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Chonburi FC.
- Where and when is BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC played?
- BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC is played on March 14, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at BG Stadium, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.