Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
The Footlab model makes Birmingham Legion the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Loudoun United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Birmingham Legion (1,667) and Loudoun United (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham Legion have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Loudoun United have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Louisville City(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 12, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 3-1 | USL League One Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New Mexico United(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charleston Battery(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Birmingham Legion win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Loudoun United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Birmingham Legion 1-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Loudoun United 2-2 Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Loudoun United 0-1 Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Birmingham Legion 1-3 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Loudoun United 4-2 Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Birmingham Legion 3-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham Legion score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Loudoun United score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Legion | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Loudoun United | 0.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham Legion sit 10th in USL Championship (12 points from 12 matches) and Loudoun United sit 12th (9 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 20 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 17 |
| 12 | Loudoun United | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United?
- The Footlab model makes Birmingham Legion the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Loudoun United.
- Where and when is Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United played?
- Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Protective Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots