Boavista SC vs Madureira: prediction and stats
Copa RioSemi-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça, Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Boavista SC the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Madureira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boavista SC vs Madureira?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Boavista SC (1,657) and Madureira (1,679).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boavista SC have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Madureira have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | CFRJ / Maricá(home) | 3-0 | Copa Rio |
| Aug 5, 2026 | CFRJ / Maricá(away) | 0-1 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 22, 2026 | CEAC / Araruama(home) | 4-0 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 15, 2026 | CEAC / Araruama(away) | 1-0 | Copa Rio |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Portuguesa RJ(home) | 1-1 | Copa Rio |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Portuguesa RJ(away) | 1-0 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-1 | Copa Rio |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Bonsucesso(away) | 2-2 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Pouso Alegre(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Boavista SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Madureira win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Madureira 2-1 Boavista SC | Carioca - 1 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Boavista SC 0-0 Madureira | Carioca - 1 |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Madureira 3-0 Boavista SC | Carioca - 1 |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Boavista SC 0-2 Madureira | Carioca - 1 |
| Feb 25, 2022 | Boavista SC 1-2 Madureira | Carioca - 1 |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Madureira 1-2 Boavista SC | Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Madureira vs Boavista SC on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boavista SC score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Madureira score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista SC | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Madureira | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boavista SC vs Madureira?
- The Footlab model makes Boavista SC the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Madureira.
- Where and when is Boavista SC vs Madureira played?
- Boavista SC vs Madureira is played on August 26, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça, in the Copa Rio.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.