Brighton vs Tromso: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeaguePlayoff roundKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab model makes Brighton the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Tromso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Tromso?
Brighton starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,172 vs 2,065).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Tromso have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tromso(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aalesund(away) | 6-2 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Brighton win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Tromso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tromso 0-0 Brighton | UEFA Europa Conference League |
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tromso score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.6 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Tromso | 1.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Tromso?
- The Footlab model makes Brighton the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Tromso.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Tromso played?
- Brighton vs Tromso is played on August 27, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.