Brühl vs Lugano II: prediction and stats
1. Liga PromotionGroup StageKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Paul-Grüninger-Stadion, St. Gallen
The Footlab model makes Brühl the favourite at 81%, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Lugano II. The most likely score is 3-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brühl vs Lugano II?
Brühl starts as the favourite with a 234-point Elo edge (1,811 vs 1,578).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brühl have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Lugano II have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bavois(away) | 0-0 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Wiesendangen(away) | 6-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luzern II(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Young Boys II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 2-5 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Luzern II(home) | 4-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Young Boys II(away) | 1-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bulle(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 30, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Brühl win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lugano II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Lugano II 4-2 Brühl | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Brühl 4-1 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Brühl 2-1 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Lugano II 1-2 Brühl | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Lugano II 4-0 Brühl | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Brühl 1-0 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
How many goals should we expect?
Brühl score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lugano II score 1.3 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brühl | 2.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Lugano II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brühl sit 5th in 1. Liga Promotion (7 points from 4 matches) and Lugano II sit 17th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brühl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | Lugano II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brühl vs Lugano II?
- The Footlab model makes Brühl the favourite at 81%, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Lugano II.
- Where and when is Brühl vs Lugano II played?
- Brühl vs Lugano II is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Paul-Grüninger-Stadion, in the 1. Liga Promotion.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.