Burreli vs Pogradeci: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Liri Ballabani, Burreli
The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Burreli. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burreli vs Pogradeci?
Pogradeci starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,538).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burreli have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Pogradeci have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Apolonia Fier(away) | 4-4 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lushnja(home) | 1-0 | 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-2 | 1st Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 0-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Laci(away) | 1-3 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Teuta Durrës(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 11, 2026 | Besa Kavajë(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Kastrioti Krujë(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-3 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burreli win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Pogradeci win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Burreli 0-3 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Pogradeci 2-0 Burreli | 1st Division |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Burreli 2-0 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Burreli 0-1 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Burreli 1-0 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Pogradeci 0-2 Burreli | 1st Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Burreli score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burreli | 0.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Pogradeci | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burreli sit 7th in 1st Division (37 points from 33 matches) and Pogradeci sit 3rd (68 points from 33 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pogradeci | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 68 |
| 7 | Burreli | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 45 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burreli vs Pogradeci?
- The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Burreli.
- Where and when is Burreli vs Pogradeci played?
- Burreli vs Pogradeci is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.